Forecast using Regression and Seasonal Index.
1. Using form of Regression method would give you the highest performing model to forecast Sales? Why?
2. Graph the Actual and Forecast over Time Period to give visual evidence of the fit.
3. Using your model, please forecast the sales for:
2008-April;
2008-July;
2009-Oct.;
And 2009-Dec.
|
Year
|
Month
|
Sales (MMs)
|
Time Period
|
|
2005
|
Jan
|
243
|
1
|
|
2005
|
Feb
|
238
|
2
|
|
2005
|
Mar
|
237
|
3
|
|
2005
|
Apr
|
185
|
4
|
|
2005
|
May
|
193
|
5
|
|
2005
|
Jun
|
151
|
6
|
|
2005
|
Jul
|
158
|
7
|
|
2005
|
Aug
|
167
|
8
|
|
2005
|
Sep
|
127
|
9
|
|
2005
|
Oct
|
149
|
10
|
|
2005
|
Nov
|
173
|
11
|
|
2005
|
Dec
|
229
|
12
|
|
2006
|
Jan
|
288
|
13
|
|
2006
|
Feb
|
265
|
14
|
|
2006
|
Mar
|
276
|
15
|
|
2006
|
Apr
|
224
|
16
|
|
2006
|
May
|
226
|
17
|
|
2006
|
Jun
|
184
|
18
|
|
2006
|
Jul
|
194
|
19
|
|
2006
|
Aug
|
200
|
20
|
|
2006
|
Sep
|
163
|
21
|
|
2006
|
Oct
|
173
|
22
|
|
2006
|
Nov
|
212
|
23
|
|
2006
|
Dec
|
277
|
24
|
|
2007
|
Jan
|
331
|
25
|
|
2007
|
Feb
|
306
|
26
|
|
2007
|
Mar
|
318
|
27
|
|
2007
|
Apr
|
260
|
28
|
|
2007
|
May
|
267
|
29
|
|
2007
|
Jun
|
219
|
30
|
|
2007
|
Jul
|
227
|
31
|
|
2007
|
Aug
|
237
|
32
|
|
2007
|
Sep
|
191
|
33
|
|
2007
|
Oct
|
215
|
34
|
|
2007
|
Nov
|
242
|
35
|
|
2007
|
Dec
|
306
|
36
|