The probability is 1 in 4000000 that a single auto trip in, Ask an Expert

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Estimating probability with the given data.

The probability is 1 in 4,000,000 that a single auto trip in the United States will result in a fatality. Over a lifetime, an average U.S. driver takes 50,000 trips. (a) What is the probability of a fatal accident over a lifetime? Describe your reasoning carefully. Hint: Assume independent events. Why might the assumption of independence be violated? (b) Why might a driver be tempted not to use a seat belt "just on this trip"?

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