The new director of special events at a large university has decided to completely revamp graduation ceremonies. Toward that end, a PERT chart of the major activities has been developed. The chart has five paths with expected completion times and variances as shown in the table. Graduation day is 16 weeks from now.
|
Path
|
Expected Duration
(weeks)
|
Variance
|
|
A
|
10
|
1.21
|
|
B
|
8
|
2.00
|
|
C
|
12
|
1.00
|
|
D
|
15
|
2.89
|
|
E
|
14
|
1.44
|
Assuming the project begins now, what is the probability that the project will be completed before:
a. Graduation time?
b. The end of week 15?
c. The end of week 13?