The following data represent revenues in thousands of dollars for a manufacturer of small electric appliances.

a. Calculate the moving averages for this time series.

            Moving

Year  Quarter    Revenues Q  Average

1996   1            514              1         

1996   2            822              2         

1996   3            648              3         

1996   4            976              4         

1997   1            616              5         

1997   2            884              6         

1997   3            678             7         

1997   4            996             8         

1998   1            658             9         

1998   2            850            10       

1998   3            714            11       

1998   4          1052            12

b. Find the seasonal index for each quarter.

Quarter Seasonal index
1
2
3
4

c. From the fourth quarter of 1997 to the first quarter of 1998, revenues declined. What happened on a seasonally adjusted basis?

d. From the first quarter of 1998 to the second quarter of 1998, revenues increased. What happened on a seasonally adjusted basis?

e. The regression equation to predict the long term trend in the seasonally adjusted revenues.

Seasonally adjusted revenues = 705.97 + 11.67*Q

f. Compute the seasonally adjusted forecast for the fourth quarter of 2001.

g. Compute the forecast for the second quarter of 2002.