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## Statistics

Deriving the regression equation, testing the model fit and obtain confidence interval for a given values.

The data below contains the population of the United States for the years 1930 through 1999. Fit a linear trend to these data.

a) What is the resulting regression equation?

b) What percentage of the variation in y has been describeed by the regression?

c) Based on your answer in part b and on any other regression results you obtain, how well does the equation fit the data? Does a good fit ensure that forecasts for future years would be accurate?

d) Use the equation developed to predict the U.S. population in the years 2000 and 2001. Find out a point prediction and a 95 percent prediction interval.

e) How reliable do you believe the forecast in part d might be? What factors might influence this correctness?

 YEAR POPULATION 1930 123,076,741 1931 124,039,648 1932 124,840,471 1933 125,578,763 1934 126,373,773 1935 127,250,232 1936 128,053,180 1937 128,824,829 1938 129,824,939 1939 130,879,718 1940 132,122,446 1941 133,402,471 1942 134,859,553 1943 136,739,353 1944 138,397,345 1945 139,928,165 1946 141,388,566 1947 144,126,071 1948 146,631,302 1949 149,188,130 1950 152,271,417 1951 154,877,889 1952 157,552,740 1953 160,184,192 1954 163,025,854 1955 165,931,202 1956 168,903,031 1957 171,984,130 1958 174,881,904 1959 177,829,628 1960 180,671,158 1961 183,691,481 1962 186,537,737 1963 189,241,798 1964 191,888,791 1965 194,302,963 1966 196,560,338 1967 198,712,056 1968 200,706,052 1969 202,676,946 1970 205,052,174 1971 207,660,677 1972 209,896,021 1973 211,908,788 1974 213,853,928 1975 215,973,199 1976 218,035,164 1977 220,239,425 1978 222,584,545 1979 225,055,487 1980 227,224,681 1981 229,465,714 1982 231,664,458 1983 233,791,994 1984 235,824,902 1985 237,923,795 1986 240,132,887 1987 242,288,918 1988 244,498,982 1989 246,819,230 1990 249,464,396 1991 252,153,092 1992 255,029,699 1993 257,782,608 1994 260,327,021 1995 262,803,276 1996 265,228,572 1997 267,783,607 1998 270,248,003 1999 272,690,813

Statistics and Probability, Statistics

• Category:- Statistics and Probability
• Reference No.:- M922910

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