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Suppose there are 4096 actively-managed mutual funds. Suppose also that the markets are perfectly efficient, so it is not possible to beat the market by 'skill', only by luck.

Let's say that a fund has a 50/50 chance of beating its benchmark index every year. How many funds would you expect to beat the index every year for the past 10 years straight?

Bonus question: if you invest your money into one of these funds that beat the benchmark every year for 10 years, what is your chance of beating the benchmark next year?

Financial Management, Finance

  • Category:- Financial Management
  • Reference No.:- M92742626

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