Statistics for Financial Decisions

Learning Outcomes

1. Analyse and present data graphically using spreadsheet software (Excel).

2. Critically evaluate summary statistics against suitable benchmarks.

3. Apply judgement to select appropriate methods of data analysis drawing on knowledge of regression analysis, probability, probability distributions and sampling distributions.

4. Select and apply a range of data analysis tools to inform problem solving and decision making.

5. Conduct quantitative research both individually and as part of a team and articulate and present findings to a wide range of stakeholders, from accounting and non-accounting backgrounds.

Instructions:

You are expected to present your preliminary findings of your final report (Assessment no. 3). You are expected to apply your knowledge from all Modules and draws links between the scenario and the learning resources. Furthermore, you are expected to incorporate feedback given to your short written assessments (Assessment no.1) in your presentation of your preliminary findings to your final report. Your answers should reflect upon and analyse issues

of the key discussion points of the Modules. Your answers should also effectively communicate and demonstrate that key concepts covered during this course can be applied by you in a comprehensive manner. Please keep in mind that the final report also asks you to apply critical thinking and analysis.

Report and presentation

As discussed above, your final two assessments are inter-linked:

- Assessment 3 requires you to write a report.
- For Assessment 2 you are to present the preliminary findings of your report (Assessment 3).
o The presentation (Assessment 2) provides you with an opportunity to receive feedback from the learning facilitator which you are then to implement and address in your final report.

Introduction:

1. Analysis of sales and country data, forecasting of sales figures until 2020

The Board of Directors of Schmeckt Gut instructs you to write a report of the development of sales in Industria, Nokaragua and the Federated Islands over the past 25 years. Furthermore, the board would like you to use forecasting methodologies to project the sales for the next 5 years (until 2020) by applying reasonable assumptions based on the data provided and your analysis. Additional details are provided below.

2. Market place Sweden - Estimate of potential sales figures in 2016 and forecast to 2020

Schmeckt Gut has recently entered the Swedish market and the Board is interested in an estimate of this year's sales as well as potential sales for the next 5 years (until 2020). Additional details are provided below.

Data set:
The excel file provides you with four data sets for the 4 countries of interest which include:

- Sales figures in US$ (not available for Sweden)
- GDP data in US$
- Average Price Index (in %)
- Population (15-65 years of age)

- Survey score - this is the average result of a customer satisfaction survey (0=not satisfies, 10=very satisfied)
- Number of average advertisements
- Number of stores
All data is exogenous and independent except in their relation with the sales figures.

Detailed tasks

1n. Alysis of sales and country data, forecasting of sales figures until 2020

- Provide a statistical overview of the data provided in the excel sheets for each country (you can also do a comparison analysis)
- Conduct a correlation analysis between sales development and:
o (i) advertisements, (ii) number of stores and (iii) the survey results
- Conduct a multi regression time series analysis and use the results to forecast the sales until 2020.
o Hint: You should use natural logs (ln) for your analysis as discussed in your assignment of Module 5.
o For your reasonable assumptions which are required for the forecasting, you should apply hypothesis testing techniques for the GDP, Prices and Population developments.

- For example, if you forecast a GDP growth of 3.5%, knowing the past GDP growth figures, is the forecast of 3.5% an acceptable growth figure for the forecast or should that Null hypothesis be rejected?

2. Market place Sweden - Estimate of potential sales figures in 2016 and forecast to 2020

- Based on your analysis in part 1, which country (Industria, Federated Islands, Nokaragua) is closest related to Sweden? Justify your selection.

o Hint: Look at average GDP per capita statistics (GDP divided by Population) and Price Index.
- Once you have identified the country that is closet related to Sweden, use that country's characteristics of the analysis undertaken in the first part to estimate/forecast the potential sales for the Swedish market.

o Use the forecasts from the IMF to project GDP growth rates and a potential price index (CPI or Inflation rate) for the years 2016 to 2020.
- See pg 40 of the ‘IMF 2015 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION' report for Sweden for the data.

Your presentation:
- Create a presentation (for example with PowerPoint) and turn your presentation into a video.
o Details should you decide to use PowerPoint
o You can also use any other suitable programs
- Present your main results that will assist the Board in their decision making
o Focus on the main results and explain which techniques you have applied to achieve these results and why you used these techniques.
o What do these results imply?
o What are your main recommendations?
- Your presentation should not be longer than 15 minutes
- Submit your narrated video on Blackboard.

Attachment:- Presentation.xlsx