Statistics for Financial Decisions Assessment: Report

Learning Outcomes

1. Analyse and present data graphically using spreadsheet software (Excel).

2. Critically evaluate summary statistics against suitable benchmarks.

3. Apply judgement to select appropriate methods of data analysis drawing on knowledge of regression analysis, probability, probability distributions and sampling distributions.

4. Select and apply a range of data analysis tools to inform problem solving and decision making.

5. Conduct quantitative research both individually and as part of a team and articulate and present findings to a wide range of stakeholders, from accounting and nonaccounting backgrounds.

Context:

The report asks students to apply their knowledge on the concepts and ideas discussed during the Modules in a comprehensive work. The report allows students to reflect back on their previous learning performances and outcomes, and to make use of previous submissions.

Instructions:

You are expected to submit a report that requires you to apply your knowledge from all Modules and draws links between the scenario and the learning resources. Furthermore, you are expected to incorporate feedback given to your short written assessments (assessment no.1) and feedback provided to your presentation (assessment no. 2) in your final report. Your answers should reflect upon and analyse issues of the key discussion points of the Modules. Your answers should also effectively communicate and demonstrate that key concepts covered during this course can be applied by you in a comprehensive manner. The report also asks you to apply critical thinking and analysis.

Introduction:

1. Analysis of sales and country data, forecasting of sales figures until 2020

The Board of Directors of Schmeckt Gut instructs you to write a report of the development of sales in Industria, Nokaragua and the Federated Islands over the past 25 years. Furthermore, the board would like you to use forecasting methodologies to project the sales for the next 5 years (until 2020) by applying reasonable assumptions based on the data provided and your analysis. Additional details are provided below.

2. Market place Sweden - Estimate of potential sales figures in 2016 and forecast to 2020

Schmeckt Gut has recently entered the Swedish market and the Board is interested in an estimate of this year's sales as well as potential sales for the next 5 years (until 2020). Additional details are provided below.

Data set:

The excel file provides you with four data sets for the 4 countries of interest which include:

• Sales figures in US$ (not available for Sweden)
• GDP data in US$
• Average Price Index (in %)
• Population (15-65 years of age)
• Survey score - this is the average result of a customer satisfaction survey (0=not satisfies, 10=very satisfied)
• Number of average advertisements
• Number of stores

All data is exogenous and independent except in their relation with the sales figures.

Detailed tasks

1. Analysis of sales and country data, forecasting of sales figures until 2020

• Provide a statistical overview of the data provided in the excel sheets for each country (you can also do a comparison analysis)
• Conduct a correlation analysis between sales development and:

(i) advertisements, (ii) number of stores and (iii) the survey results

• Conduct a multi regression time series analysis and use the results to forecast the sales until 2020.

For your reasonable assumptions which are required for the forecasting, you should apply hypothesis testing techniques for the GDP, Prices and Population developments.

For example, if you forecast a GDP growth of 3.5%, knowing the past GDP growth figures, is the forecast of 3.5% an acceptable growth figure for the forecast or should that Null hypothesis be rejected?

2. Market place Sweden - Estimate of potential sales figures in 2016 and forecast to 2020

• Based on your analysis in part 1, which country (Industria, Federated Islands, Nokaragua) is closest related to Sweden? Justify your selection.
• Once you have identified the country that is closet related to Sweden, use that country's characteristics of the analysis undertaken in the first part to estimate/forecast the potential sales for the Swedish market.

Use the forecasts from the IMF to project GDP growth rates and a potential price index (CPI or Inflation rate) for the years 2016 to 2020.

See pg 40 of the 'IMF 2015 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION' report for Sweden for the data.

3. Other suggestions

- Based on your analysis in parts 1 and 2, are there any other suggestions you have for the Board on how Schmeckt Gut can boost sales in the countries?

Your presentation:

Create a presentation and turn your presentation into a video.

You can also use any other suitable programs

- Present your main results that will assist the Board in their decision making

• Focus on the main results and explain which techniques you have applied to achieve these results and why you used these techniques.
• What do these results imply?
• What are your main recommendations?

- Your presentation should not be longer than 15 minutes

- Submit your narrated video on Blackboard.

Attachment:- Assignment Files.rar