Singapore's Tourist Arrival
A bridge between the East and the West for centuries, Singapore embraces tradition and modernity. Colourful ethnic precincts amongst efficient business centres, and serene gardens set against sleek skyscrapers, Singapore is a fascinating destination for leisure and business travellers (MTI, 2015).
Over the years, there has been remarkable transformation in Singapore's tourism landscape and there are various reported record growth in both tourism receipts and visitor arrivals. Since 2004, Singapore has grown her tourism receipts by almost 2.5 times while visitor arrivals also almost doubled (MTI, 2015).
A common key performance indicator is the International Visitor Arrivals which refer to travellers taking a trip to Singapore whose length of stay is less than a year. This excludes:
• All Malaysian citizens arriving by land;
• Returning Singapore citizens, permanent residents and pass holders
• Non-resident air and sea crew (except for sea crew flying in to join a ship); and
• Air transit and transfer passengers.
Arrival statistics are reported by country of residence based on information from Disembarkation/Embarkation (D/E) Cards by the Immigration and Checkpoints Authority of Singapore (STB, 2015).
Using the data in Tables 2.1, 2.2 and 2.3 below, produce forecasts of the Visitor Arrivals in Singapore (Total, ASEAN and China) and prepare a report according to the requirements listed.
Question
(a) Provide an understanding and background discussion on the methodology of forecasting.
(b) Determine the seasonality of the data by conducting an in-depth seasonality analysis for Table 1, 2 and 3. For each quarter, indicate the seasonal indexes, the depersonalised time series and the trend line that will fit the depersonalised time series. Adjust the seasonal indexes, if necessary. Provide justification on the appropriateness of seasonality analysis.
(c) Understand and comment on possible forecast errors and the cause of these errors.
(d) Develop an overall conclusion of your forecasting findings, policy observations and recommendations.