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Question: A warehouse has a capacity to hold four items. If the warehouse is neither full nor empty, the number of items in the warehouse changes whenever a new item is produced or an item is sold. Suppose that (no matter when we look) the probability that the next event is "a new item is produced" is 2/3 and that the new event is a "sale" is 1/3. If there is currently one item in the warehouse, what is the probability that the warehouse will become full before it becomes empty.

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