Project: Forecasting

Eli Orchid has designed a new pharmaceutical product, Orchid Relief that improves night sleep. (We will revisit this company in future mini-projects as well). Before mass production of the product, Eli Orchid has market tested Orchid Relief in only Orange County over the past 8 weeks. The weekly demand is recorded. Eli Orchid is now trying to use the sales pattern over the past 8 weeks to predict sales in US for the upcoming few months.

After reviewing the data, the marketing manager of Eli Orchid believes that there is a repeating pattern in Orchid Relief use likely due to changes in sleeping pattern of customers on different days.

1) How many seasons are in each repeating cycle?
a) 3
b) 5
c) 7
d) 12

2) To make a forecast of day 60, what is the seasonal factor for this day?
a. 90.58%
b. 98.02%
c. 99.05%
d. 100%
e. 121.89%

3) Looking at the deseasonalized time series, what is the slope of a linear time trend in the deseasonalized data?
a. 339.29
b. 351.08
c. 4.018× 10-7
d. 0.6143
e. 1.0356

4) Can we conclude at 5% significance level that there is a significant linear time trend in the deseasonalized time series?
a. Yes
b. No
c. Cannot be determined

5) Using the regression method on the deseasonalized time series, what is a deseasonalized forecast for day 60?
a. 343.43
b. 353.54
c. 387.94
d. 401.42

6) Taking seasonality into account, what is a forecast for day 60?
a. 387.94
b. 351.40
c. 353.54
d. 363.61

7) What is a deseasonalized forecast for day 57 using the 3-day weighted moving average with weights 60%, 30% and 10%?
a. 378.31
b. 391.56
c. 384.96
d. 384.77

8) What is a deseasonalized forecast for day 60 using the 3-day weighted moving average with weights 60%, 30% and 10%?
a. 391.56
b. 378.31
c. 392.86
d. 384.96

9) What is a deseasonalized forecast for day 57 using the exponential smoothing method with smoothing constant 0.7 (Hint: Use deseasonalized data on day 53 as your forecast for day 54)?
a. 384.77
b. 384.19
c. 386.72
d. 393.28
e. 380.36

10) What is a deseasonalized forecast for day 60 using the exponential smoothing method with smoothing constant 0.7?
a. 384.77
b. 384.19
c. 386.72
d. 393.28
e. 380.36

11) Using the deseasonalized forecast of question 8 and the method of incorporating for seasonality that the Chief Marketing Officer suggested, what is a seasonal forecast for day 60?
a. 391.56
b. 384.19
c. 354.67
d. 320.51

Attachment:- data.xlsx

Attachment:- forecast.xls