PROJECT - FORECASTING TECHNIQUES
The following data represent sales of toys for a Company based in Jeddah. Every period corresponds to 4 weeks.
|
Period
|
2013
|
2014
|
2015
|
|
1
|
155
|
576
|
1106
|
|
2
|
339
|
1064
|
2061
|
|
3
|
143
|
390
|
705
|
|
4
|
95
|
261
|
412
|
|
5
|
93
|
277
|
404
|
|
6
|
170
|
346
|
624
|
|
7
|
216
|
460
|
704
|
|
8
|
298
|
638
|
980
|
|
9
|
339
|
710
|
1233
|
|
10
|
213
|
505
|
684
|
|
11
|
234
|
458
|
671
|
|
12
|
302
|
679
|
|
|
13
|
431
|
646
|
|
a) Draw the monthly sales data in a graph and explain which forecasting method do you recommend.
b) Calculate the forecasting of the sales volume for the periods 12 and 13 when necessary using the following methods:
i. Linear equation. (using regression analysis)
ii. Five-month moving Average.
iii. Exponential Smoothing using the constant alpha as per the formula given in class and an initial forecast as the average of the total sales.
iv. Double Exponetial Smoothing using alpha in part iii, the contented beta as 10% more than alpha, the initial forecast as the average of all sales, and the initial trend as the trend equation at period zero.
c) Use the decomposition model and calculate the seasonal factors and forecast period 13, 14, 15, and 16.
d) Use the answer of part (b) and (c) to predict sales for the periods 12 and 13 for the year 2015. Show your work!