Problem:

Your firm is considering a project with a five-year life and an initial cost of $120,000. The discount rate for the project is 12%. The firm expects to sell 2,100 units a year. The cash flow per unit is $20. The firm will have the option to abandon this project after three years at which time it expects it could sell the project for $50,000. You are interested in knowing how the project will perform if the sales forecasts for years four and five of the project are revised such that there is a 50% chance that the sales will be either 1,400 or 2,500 units a year.

Required:

Question: What is the net present value of this project given your sales forecasts?

Note: Provide support for your rationale.