Problem-
The table below provides a list of sales figures for this past year for your mountain resort. You want to project a forecast for January of the following year. You want to select from 3 models to make your forecast: 1) a 3-month moving average; 2) a weighted moving average (you believe your weights should be 0.2, 0.3, & 0.5); and 3) an exponential smoothing model in which will use an a = 0.2. Your assumed forecast for January is $32,000.
a. Construct a table that shows each of these forecasts for the current year and provide the forecast for January of this coming year.
b. Using the data given, and your forecasts, which model do you think is the best model for your business?
|
Month
|
Previous year sale $
|
|
January
|
32,645
|
|
February
|
31,456
|
|
March
|
30,270
|
|
April
|
33,129
|
|
May
|
34,456
|
|
June
|
35,256
|
|
July
|
36,218
|
|
August
|
35,456
|
|
September
|
34,250
|
|
October
|
32,156
|
|
November
|
30,125
|
|
December
|
32,275
|
|
January
|
|
Additional information-
This problem related to Basic Statistics and it discuss about forecasting sales for a business using exponential smoothing model.