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The campaign manager for a political candidate claims that 55% of registered voters favor the candidate over her strongest opponent. Assuming that this claim is true, what is the probability that in a simple random sample of 300 voters, at least 60% would favor the candidate over her strongest opponent?

  • What is the point estimate of the population?
  • For this situation suppose that only 49% of the registered voters in the sample favor the candidate over her strongest opponent. Given this result:
  • If the campaign manager's claim is correct, what is the probability that the sample proportion would be no more than 0.49 for a sample of this size
  • Based on your answer to part (a), speculate on which type of error is made by the campaign manager's claim?

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