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After plotting demand for four periods, an emergency room manager has concluded that a trend-adjusted exponential smoothing model is appropriate to predict future demand. The initial estimate of trend is based on the net change of 30 for the three periods from 1 to 4, for an average of +10 units.

Period Actual Period Actual
1 211 6 260
2 227 7 262
3 224 8 270
4 241 9 294
5 257 10    

Use α=.5 and β=.1, and TAF of 250 for period 5. Obtain forecasts for periods 6 through 10.

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