Mice populations rise and fall with the abundance of acorns, their favored food. Experimenters studied two similar forest areas in a year when the acorn crop failed. They added hundreds of thousands of acorns to one area to imitate an abundant acorn crop, while leaving the other area untouched. The next spring, 23 of the 72 mice trapped in the first area were in breeding condition, versus 10 of the 17 mice trapped in the second area. The p-value for comparing the proportion of breeders in the two areas was 0.04. Which of the following is correct?

• There is an 4% chance that the breeding rate is different in the two areas.
• There is an 18% chance that the breeding rate is the same in both areas.
• If the breeding rates were different, there is an 4% chance of seeing this difference in breeding rates (or more extreme).
• If the breeding rates were the same, there is an 4% chance of seeing this difference in the breeding rates (or more extreme).