In 1999 the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated that about 34.8% of high school students smoked cigarettes. They established a national health goal of reducing that figure to 16% by the year 2010. To that end, they hoped to achieve a reduction to 20% by 2006. In 2006 they released a research study in which 23% of a random sample of 1815 high school students said they were current smokers. Is this evidence that progress toward the goal is off track?

a) Write appropriate hypotheses.

b) Verify that the appropriate assumptions are satisfied.

c) Find the P-value of this test.

d) Explain what the P-value means in this context.

e) State an appropriate conclusion.

f) Of course, your conclusion may be incorrect. If so, which kind of error did you commit?