How enduring do you think this gourmet coffee and coffeehouse experience will be? Do you think lower-price competitors are going to take many customers from Starbucks? Do you agree from the above statistics, admittedly they were only up to 2005, that the growth of independent coffeehouses is not a negative for Starbucks?

Taylor Clark, a researcher who recently published a book about the chain, surveyed café owners around the country, and found a surprising phenomenon, what he called "Starbucks Reverse Jinx." The chain's arrival seemed to stimulate demand for the coffeehouse experience that spilled over to other shops. He saw some of this spillover coming from customers wandering elsewhere to avoid long lines at Starbucks. He speculated that other stores thrived from former Starbucks customers who having cultivated a taste for drinks like cappuccino now sought less-pricey versions. But wouldn't this be a negative for Starbucks?

Statistics support the anecdotal data of Clark, but not his complete conclusions. Some 57 percent of U.S. coffee shops are independents. Between 2000 and 2005, independents grew from 9,800 to 14,000. But during this same period, Starbucks tripled its number of outlets and still had increasing same-store sales, as shown in Table.

Older Store Sales Growth, 2001-2006

Percentage Sales Growth 

from Previous Year

2001 ........ 5

2002 ........ 6

2003 ........ 8

2004 ........ 10

2005 ........ 8

2006 ........ 7