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Include in your paper statistical information around the likelihood of a successful hostage negotiation, given the information provided, and the length of time in which you have to do so. For example, after a one hour stand-off, what is the likelihood (in percentages) that the negotiation will end successfully? After four hours? After eight hours? How does the percentage likelihood of a successful negotiation change over the course of time? Use the statistical data to inform the plan and the course of action the department will take in this hostage situation.

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