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How accurate are pollsters in predicting the outcomes of congressional elections? The table shows the actual number of Democratic party seats in the House of Representatives and the number predicted by the Gallup organization for nonpresidential election years between World War II and 1998.

a) Is there a significant difference between the number of seats predicted for the Democrats and the number they actually held? Test an appropriate hypothesis and state your conclusions.

Democratic Party Congressmen
Year Predicted Actual
1946 190 188
1950 235 234
1954 232 232
1958 272 283
1962 259 258
1966 247 248
1970 260 255
1974 292 291
1978 277 277
1982 275 269
1986 264 258
1990 260 267
1994 201 204
1998 211 211

b) Is there a strong association between the pollsters predictions and the outcomes of the elections? Test an appropriate hypothesis and state your conclusions.

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  • Category:- Statistics and Probability
  • Reference No.:- M92236080

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