Q1) Given following financing project being considered by venture film, determine critical path probability of completion by 17 weeks. By 24 weeks. By what date is management 90 percent sure completion will happen?
|
Times (weeks)
|
|
Activity
|
Optimistic
|
Most Likely
|
Pessimistic
|
|
1-2
|
5
|
11
|
11
|
|
1-3
|
10
|
10
|
10
|
|
1-4
|
2
|
5
|
8
|
|
2-6
|
1
|
7
|
13
|
|
3-6
|
4
|
4
|
10
|
|
3-7
|
4
|
7
|
10
|
|
3-5
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
|
4-50
|
6
|
6
|
|
|
5-72
|
8
|
14
|
|
|
6-71
|
4
|
7
|
|
If venture firm can complete project for customer within 18 weeks, it will get a bonus of $10,000. But if project delays beyond 22 weeks, it should pay penalty of $5,000 due to lost customer impact. If firm can select whether or not to bid on this project, what must its decision be if project is only breakeven one normally?