Fried dough is a popular North American food associated with outdoor food stands at carnivals, amusement parks, fairs, and festivals, etc. Usually dusted with powdered sugar and drenched in oil, it is not particularly good for you but it sure is tasty! Jose Sanchez owns a small stall at Boston Commons in Boston, Massachusetts, where he sells fried dough and soft drinks. Although business is good, he is apprehensive about the variation in sales for no apparent reason. He asks a friend to help him make a forecast for fried dough as well as soft drinks. The accompanying table shows a portion of data on the number of plates of fried dough and soft drinks that he sold over the last 20 days; the fu ll data set is on the text website, labeled Fried Doug
Data on Fried Dough and Soft Drinks
|
Day
|
Fried Dough
|
Soft Drinks
|
|
1
|
70
|
150
|
|
2
|
69
|
145
|
|
....
|
....
|
....
|
|
20
|
61
|
153
|
In a report, use the sample information to:
1. Construct the exponentially smoothed series for fried dough and soft drinks using α = 0.30 and α = 0.70.
2. Calculate MSE and MAD for each series.
3. Forecast sales of fried dough and soft drinks for day 21 with the best-fitting series.