Forecasting with Time Series Analysis
Objective: Crusty Pizza Executives have to forecast December sales for the 10 stores given in table.
• Plot the data for each store.Use data in table.
• Develop a sales forecast for each store for December, using:
a) A three month moving average
b) A 2- month weighted moving average, with weights of 0.7 on the most recent month and 0.3 on the older month.
c) Exponential smoothing with an alpha value of 0.25.
Which resulting forecast and forecasting technique is the best technique to use? Why?
Crusty Dough Pizza Company
Monthly Sales Data for ten stores
|
Store |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
|
A1 |
$22,910.28 |
$20,827.53 |
$27,336.13 |
$22,389.59 |
$29,418.88 |
$29,418.88 |
|
A2 |
$1,604.99 |
$1,547.67 |
$1,929.81 |
$1,853.38 |
$2,139.98 |
$2,159.09 |
|
A3 |
$23,317.20 |
$16,142.68 |
$15,943.38 |
$20,128.52 |
$18,135.60 |
$19,530.65 |
|
A4 |
$12,339.01 |
$13,585.38 |
$14,457.83 |
$13,585.38 |
$13,086.83 |
$12,588.29 |
|
A5 |
$12,771.04 |
$12,771.04 |
$11,223.03 |
$15,093.05 |
$10,707.03 |
$11,997.04 |
|
A6 |
$19,694.54 |
$16,145.98 |
$17,565.40 |
$15,791.12 |
$19,517.11 |
$20,226.83 |
|
A7 |
$19,258.64 |
$18,391.14 |
$14,227.11 |
$20,299.65 |
$17,003.13 |
$15,268.11 |
|
A8 |
$18,483.54 |
$21,344.08 |
$19,143.66 |
$20,243.87 |
$24,864.76 |
$23,984.59 |
|
A9 |
$23,471.33 |
$21,430.35 |
$28,063.55 |
$22,195.72 |
$29,339.17 |
$30,614.78 |
|
A10 |
$15,572.27 |
$18,041.04 |
$22,788.68 |
$22,029.06 |
$19,750.19 |
$22,788.68 |
|
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|
Store |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
|
A1 |
$26,815.44 |
$25,774.07 |
$21,868.90 |
$24,732.69 |
$30,980.95 |
? |
|
A2 |
$2,216.41 |
$1,968.02 |
$1,585.88 |
$1,776.95 |
$2,235.52 |
? |
|
A3 |
$17,537.72 |
$21,922.15 |
$17,737.01 |
$23,117.91 |
$20,726.40 |
? |
|
A4 |
$10,469.47 |
$9,970.92 |
$11,092.65 |
$13,336.11 |
$14,083.92 |
? |
|
A5 |
$15,351.05 |
$12,900.04 |
$10,320.03 |
$11,610.04 |
$14,190.04 |
? |
|
A6 |
$18,629.97 |
$14,549.12 |
$21,291.40 |
$16,855.69 |
$16,855.69 |
? |
|
A7 |
$15,268.11 |
$15,441.62 |
$13,880.10 |
$15,441.62 |
$18,391.14 |
? |
|
A8 |
$23,324.46 |
$20,023.83 |
$19,363.70 |
$25,304.84 |
$23,984.59 |
? |
|
A9 |
$23,981.58 |
$24,236.70 |
$30,104.54 |
$30,614.78 |
$27,298.18 |
? |
|
A10 |
$17,851.14 |
$19,750.19 |
$18,800.66 |
$22,218.97 |
$17,471.32 |
? |