Forecasting Assignment Question -
Q1: Given the data below, what is the forecast using a 4-period moving average?
|
Day
|
Actual Demand
|
Forecasted Demand
|
|
Monday
|
75
|
X
|
|
Tuesday
|
55
|
X
|
|
Wednesday
|
62
|
X
|
|
Thursday
|
79
|
X
|
|
Friday
|
53
|
|
|
Saturday
|
91
|
|
|
Sunday
|
88
|
|
|
Monday
|
65
|
|
|
Tuesday
|
75
|
|
|
Wednesday
|
72
|
|
|
Thursday
|
84
|
|
|
Friday
|
68
|
|
|
Saturday
|
59
|
|
|
Sunday
|
85
|
|
Q2: Using the same data from Question 1, what is the forecast for Monday if you use a weighted moving average given the following weights (note: w1 corresponds to the most recent data followed by w2 and so on).
|
w1
|
0.30
|
|
w2
|
0.15
|
|
w3
|
0.45
|
|
w4
|
0.10
|
Q3: Again, using the data from Question 1, calculate the forecast for the coming Monday using the simple exponential smoothing technique. The relevant parameters are:
Sunday forecast = 72
alpha = 0.1
What effect on Monday's forecast would increasing the alpha value have?
The forecast would remain constant
The forecast would increase
The forecast would decrease
Alpha does not affect the forecast
Q4: Practice with error terms:
Monthly sales for Computer Success are shown below:
Given the data, what is the forecast for April to December if you use a 3-period moving average to complete the forecast table?
|
Month
|
Sales? ($)
|
|
January
|
3,000
|
|
February
|
3,400
|
|
March
|
3,700
|
|
April
|
4,100
|
|
May
|
4,700
|
|
June
|
5,700
|
|
July
|
6,300
|
|
August
|
7,200
|
|
September
|
6,400
|
|
October
|
4,600
|
|
November
|
4,200
|
|
December
|
3,900
|
Question - Using the same data as in Question 4, what is the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for the data using the 3-period moving average?
Question - Using the same data as in Question 4, what is the mean squared error (deviation) (MAD) for the data using the 3-period moving average?
Question - Using the same data as in Question 4, what is the mean absolute percent error (MAPE) for the data using the 3-period moving average? For this case, enter your percentage as a whole number (e.g., 12 as opposed to 12% or 0.12)
Q5: Monthly sales for Computer Success are shown below:
Given the data, what is the average forecast error (i.e., mean bias) if you use a 3-period weighted moving average to complete the forecast table? In this case, the weights are 0.5, 0.375, and 0.125 with the highest weight being attributed to the most recent data.
|
Month
|
Sales? ($)
|
|
January
|
3,000
|
|
February
|
3,400
|
|
March
|
3,700
|
|
April
|
4,100
|
|
May
|
4,700
|
|
June
|
5,700
|
|
July
|
6,300
|
|
August
|
7,200
|
|
September
|
6,400
|
|
October
|
4,600
|
|
November
|
4,200
|
|
December
|
3,900
|
Question - Using the same data as in Question 5, what is the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for the data using the 3-period weighted moving average?
Question - Using the same data as in Question 5, what is the mean squared error (deviation) (MAD) for the data using the 3-period weighted moving average?
Question - Using the same data as in Question 5, what is the mean absolute percent error (MAPE) for the data using the 3-period moving average? For this case, enter your percentage as a whole number (e.g., 12 as opposed to 12% or 0.12).