For the payoff table below, the decision maker will use P(s1) = .15, P(s2) = .5, and P(s3) = .35.

s1 s2 s3
d1 -5000 1000 10,000
d2 -15,000 -2000 40,000

a. What alternative would be chosen according to expected value?

b. For a lottery having a payoff of 40,000 with probability p and -15,000 with probability (1-p), the decision maker expressed the following indifference probabilities.

Payoff       Probability
10,000           .85
1000              .60
-2000             .53
-5000             .50

Let U(40,000) = 10 and U(-15,000) = 0 and find the utility value for each payoff.

c. What alternative would be chosen according to expected utility?