Annual world crude oil production, 18801998 (millions of barrels)
Year 
Mbbl 
Year 
Mbbl 
Year 
Mbbl 
1880 
30 
1945 
2595 
1976 
20188 
1890 
77 
1950 
3803 
1978 
21922 
1900 
149 
1955 
5626 
1980 
21722 
1905 
215 
1960 
7674 
1982 
19411 
1910 
328 
1962 
8882 
1984 
19837 
1915 
432 
1964 
10310 
1986 
20246 
1920 
689 
1966 
12016 
1988 
21338 
1925 
1069 
1968 
14104 
1990 
22100 
1930 
1412 
1970 
16690 
1992 
22028 
1935 
1655 
1972 
18584 
1994 
22234 
1940 
2150 
1974 
20389 
1996 
23380 




1998 
24441 
The data table offers information on world crude production from 1880 to 1998.
(a) Develop scatter plot which displays the relationship between years since 1800 and the crude oil production. Comments on what you see.
(b) It appears that no single model will describe the relationship between these variables effectively, Make a scatter plot of data from 1880 to 1972. (Be certain to use years since 1800!) Use transformation to liberalize the data, and then carry out an inverse transformation to obtain either power or exponential model that describe the relationship. Justify your choice of transformation with proper statistical evidence.
(c) Employ your model from (b) to predict crude oil production in 1974. How comfortable do you feel with this prediction? Support your answer with proper statistical evidence.
(d) Now make a scatter plot of data from 1982 to 1998 (again, employ years since 1800). Find out a linear, power, or exponential model which describes the crude oil production throughout this time period.
(e) Employ your model from (d) to predict crude oil production in 2002. how comfortable do you feel with this prediction? Support your answer with proper statistical evidence.