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Annual world crude oil production, 1880-1998 (millions of barrels)

Year Mbbl Year Mbbl Year Mbbl
1880 30 1945 2595 1976 20188
1890 77 1950 3803 1978 21922
1900 149 1955 5626 1980 21722
1905 215 1960 7674 1982 19411
1910 328 1962 8882 1984 19837
1915 432 1964 10310 1986 20246
1920 689 1966 12016 1988 21338
1925 1069 1968 14104 1990 22100
1930 1412 1970 16690 1992 22028
1935 1655 1972 18584 1994 22234
1940 2150 1974 20389 1996 23380
        1998 24441

 The data table offers information on world crude production from 1880 to 1998.

(a) Develop scatter plot which displays the relationship between years since 1800 and the crude oil production. Comments on what you see.

(b) It appears that no single model will describe the relationship between these variables effectively, Make a scatter plot of data from 1880 to 1972. (Be certain to use years since 1800!) Use transformation to liberalize the data, and then carry out an inverse transformation to obtain either power or exponential model that describe the relationship. Justify your choice of transformation with proper statistical evidence.

(c) Employ your model from (b) to predict crude oil production in 1974. How comfortable do you feel with this prediction? Support your answer with proper statistical evidence.

(d) Now make a scatter plot of data from 1982 to 1998 (again, employ years since 1800). Find out a linear, power, or exponential model which describes the crude oil production throughout this time period.

(e) Employ your model from (d) to predict crude oil production in 2002. how comfortable do you feel with this prediction? Support your answer with proper statistical evidence.

Statistics and Probability, Statistics

  • Category:- Statistics and Probability
  • Reference No.:- M921363

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