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Consider a virus that is spread by transfusions of blood contaminated by the virus; a person receiving contaminated blood has a 20% chance of becoming infected with the virus. Suppose that 1000 person each receive one pint of blood and that five of them wind up becoming infected by the virus. What fraction of the pints of blood used do you expect were contaminated? Derive your answer both intuitively and using the algebra of probabilities.

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