The Surgical Intensive Care Unit would like to be better prepared by forecasting the number of surgical patients they should expect. The past 15 days shows the following numbers of surgeries performed. Conduct a 3-period moving average, an exponential smoothing forecasting using an alpha of .25, and a seasonal forecast with 3 seasons.
|
Day
|
Surgeries
|
|
1
|
10
|
|
2
|
8
|
|
3
|
12
|
|
4
|
10
|
|
5
|
9
|
|
6
|
14
|
|
7
|
11
|
|
8
|
10
|
|
9
|
15
|
|
10
|
13
|
|
11
|
13
|
|
12
|
16
|
|
13
|
14
|
|
14
|
13
|
|
15
|
18
|
a) Forecast for day 16 using 3-period Moving Average = ________________
b) Forecast for day 16 using Exponential Smoothing (alpha = .25) =________
Forecast for day 16 using Seasonality with 3 seasons = _______________