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The quality control manager for ENTA Inc. should decide whether to accept (a1), further analyze (a2), or reject (a3) a lot of incoming material. Suppose the following payoff table is available. Historical data points out that there is a 20% chance that the lot is poor quality (s1), a 50% chance that the lot is fair quality (s2), and 30% chance that the lot is good quality (s3)

  S1 s2          s3
  A1      20 30 90
  A2   60 70 10
     80 50 40

a. Compute the expected value for each of three actions and find out if the manager must accept, further examine, or reject the lot?

Expected values a1=________  a2=__________ a3=___________

b. Find out the expected value of perfect information (EVPI)? EVPI=_________

Statistics and Probability, Statistics

  • Category:- Statistics and Probability
  • Reference No.:- M923125

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