Common last names

The Census Bureau says that the 10 most common names in the United States are (in order) Smith, Johnson, Williams, Jones, Brown, Davis, Miller, Wilson, Moore, and Taylor. These names account for 5.6% of all U.S. residents. Out of curiosity, you look at the authors of the textbooks for your current courses. There are 12 authors in all. Would you be surprised if none of the names of these authors were among the 10 most common? Give a probability to support your answer and explain the reasoning behind your calculation.