Basic Statistics

Surgical Intensive Care Unit would like to be better prepared by predicting number of surgical patients they must expect.

Past 15 days illustrates following numbers of surgeries performed. Perform the 3-period moving average, exponential smoothing forecasting using the alpha of .25, and seasonal forecast with 3 seasons.

Day    Surgeries
1           10
2            8
3           12
4           10
5            9
6           14
7           11
8           10
9           15
10         13
11         13
12         16
13         14
14         13
15         18

Forecast for day 16 by using 3-period Moving Average?

Forecast for day 16 by using Exponential Smoothing (alpha = .25)?

Forecast for day 16 by using Seasonality with 3 seasons?