Assignment:
Learning Outcome: Apply statistical analysis tools to evaluate data.
For this assignment, you will work to demonstrate your knowledge of utilizing the correct test statistical testing. You will work on Case Problem: Forecasting Food and Beverage Sales in your textbook (SEE the Screenshot and the Data File attached BELOW). Put your answers in Excel or a Word document. Be throrough and explicative in your answers.Forecasting Food and Beverage Sales
The Vintage Restaurant, on Captiva Island near Fort Myers, Florida. is owned and oper-ated by Karen Payne. The restaurant just completed its third year of operation. During that time, Karen sought to establish a reputation for the restaurant as a high-quality dining establishment that specializes in fresh seafood. Through the efforts of Karen and her staff, her restaurant has become one of the best and fastest-growing restaurants on the island.
To better plan for future growth of the restaurant, Karen needs to develop a system that will enable her to forecast food and beverage sales by month for up to one year in advance. The following table shows the value of food and beverage sales ($ 1.000s) for the first three years of operation:
|
Month
|
First Year
|
Second Year
|
Third Year
|
|
January
|
242
|
263
|
282
|
|
February
|
235
|
238
|
255
|
|
March
|
232
|
247
|
265
|
|
April
|
178
|
193
|
205
|
|
May
|
184
|
193
|
210
|
|
June
|
140
|
149
|
160
|
|
July
|
145
|
157
|
166
|
|
August
|
152
|
161
|
174
|
|
September
|
110
|
122
|
126
|
|
October
|
130
|
130
|
148
|
|
November
|
152
|
167
|
173
|
|
December
|
206
|
230
|
235
|
Managerial Report
Perform an analysis of the sales data for the Vintage Restaurant. Prepare a report for Karen that summarizes your findings, forecasts, and recommendations. Include the following:
1. A time series plot. Comment on the underlying pattern in the time series.
2. Thing the dummy variable approach, forecast sales for January through December of the fourth year.
How would you explain this model to Karen?
Assume that January sales for the fourth year turn out to be $295,000. What was your forecast error? If this error is large, Karen may be puzzled about the difference between your forecast and the actual sales value. What can you do to resolve her uncertainty about the forecasting procedure?
Here are some links that can be used for clarification/reference when doing the assignment:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kcfiu-f88JQ&feature=youtu.be
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5C012eMSeIU&feature=youtu.be
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gHdYEZA50KE&feature=youtu.be
https://businessmanagement.wordpress.com/2008/02/21/time-series-methods-of-forecasting/