Answer to a problem based on decision theory
The owner of Tasty Cookies needs to decide whether to lease a small, medium, or large new retail outlet. She estimated that monthly profits will vary with demand for her cookies as follows:
Demand
Size of Outlet Low High
Small 1,000 1,000
Medium 500 2,500
Large 0 3,000
a. If she uses the maximin criterion, what size outlet will she decide to lease?
b. If she feels there is a 30% chance that demand will be high, what are the expected monthly profits for the outlet she will decide to lease?
c. What is her expected value of perfect information (EVPI)?