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An article in Real Estate Finance displays the following data for Brazil's short-term interest rates (in percent).1

January	1996	43%
July	1996	31
January	1997	23
July	1997	20
January	1998	21
July	1998	25
January	1999	26
July	1999	25
January	2000	21
July	2000	17
January	2001	15
July	2001	15
January	2002	16
July	2002	17
January	2003	18
July	2003	22
January	2004	20
July	2004	16
January	2005	15
July	2005	17
January	2006	17
July	2006	15
January	2007	14

Develop a good forecasting model, and use it to forecast Brazil's short-term rate for July 2007.

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