Ajax Manufacturing is an electronic test equipment manufacturing firm that markets a certain piece of specialty test equipment. Ajax has several competitors who currently market similar pieces of equipment. While customers have repeatedly indicated they prefer Ajax's test equipment, they have historically proven to be unwilling to wait for Ajax to manufacture this certain piece of equipment on demand and will purchase their test equipment from Ajax's competitors in the event Ajax does not have the equipment available in inventory for immediate delivery. Thus, the key to Ajax successfully maintaining market share for this particular piece of equipment has been to have it available in stock for immediate delivery.
|
Time Period
|
Actual Number of Units Sold
|
|
1
|
33
|
|
2
|
36
|
|
3
|
32
|
|
4
|
35
|
|
5
|
33
|
|
6
|
36
|
|
7
|
34
|
|
8
|
38
|
|
9
|
37
|
|
10
|
36
|
|
11
|
38
|
|
12
|
38
|
|
13
|
37
|
|
14
|
39
|
|
15
|
35
|
|
16
|
38
|
|
17
|
37
|
|
18
|
39
|
|
19
|
37
|
|
20
|
35
|
|
21
|
37
|
|
22
|
34
|
|
23
|
35
|
|
24
|
36
|
Unfortunately, it is a rather expensive piece of equipment to maintain in inventory. Thus, the president of Ajax Manufacturing is very interested in accurately forecasting market demand in order to ensure he has adequate inventory available to meet customer demand without incurring undue inventory costs. His sales department has provided the following historical data regarding market demand for this certain piece of specialty electronics test equipment for the past 24 months.
1. What is the projected demand for the test equipment for time period 25 based upon using a 3-month moving average forecast model?
a. What are the bias, mean absolute deviation (MAD), mean squared error (MSE), and mean absolute percent error (MAPE) for the 3-month moving average forecast for time periods 4 through 24?
2. What is the projected demand for the test equipment for time period 25 based upon using a 3-month weighted moving average forecast model for which the weighting factor for actual demand one month ago is 3, the weighting factor for actual demand two months ago is 2, and the weighting factor for actual demand three months ago is 1?
a. What are the bias, mean absolute deviation (MAD), mean squared error (MSE), and mean absolute percent error (MAPE) for the 3-month weighted moving average forecast for time periods 4 through 24?
3. What is the projected demand for the test equipment for time period 25 based upon using an exponential smoothing forecast model for which alpha = 0.25?
a. What are the bias, mean absolute deviation (MAD), mean squared error (MSE), and mean absolute percent error (MAPE) for the exponential smoothing forecast for time periods 1 through 24?
4. What is the projected demand for the test equipment for time period 25 based upon using a regression forecast model for which the desired confidence level is 95%?
a. What are the bias, mean absolute deviation (MAD), mean squared error (MSE), and mean absolute percent error (MAPE) for the regression forecast for time periods 1 through 24?
5. Based upon using mean absolute deviation (MAD) as a measure of forecast accuracy, which of the preceding forecast models provides the greatest degree of forecasting accuracy), and which of the preceding forecast models provides the least degree of forecasting accuracy?