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After reviewing the Stata data, the current political climate, I was interested to identify a relationship (if any) between federal spending on border security and vote choice, the premise being that republicans and democrats view border security differently.

Run the initial linear probability model regression:

reg who2012 fedspend_bordercongress_therm male fedspend_terrorismfedspend_schools independent republican, r

Linear regression

 

Number of obs

= 719

 

F(7, 711)

= 231.88


 

Prob > F

= 0.0000


 

R-squared

= 0.6108


 

Root MSE

= .29704


 

 

 


 

Robust



who2012

Coef.

Std. Err.

t P>t

[95% Conf. Interval]

 

 

 



fedspend_border

.0147129

.0074025

1.99 0.047

.0001795 .0292464

congress_therm

.0021285

.0005851

3.64 0.000

.0009798 .0032773

male

.0471352

.0231848

2.03 0.042

.0016162 .0926541

fedspend_terrorism

.0188195

.0062908

2.99 0.003

.0064687 .0311702

fedspend_schools

-.0334393

.0093583

-3.57 0.000

-.0518125 -.015066

independent

-.2529824

.0633581

-3.99 0.000

-.3773738 -.128591

republican

-.7149579

.033041

-21.64 0.000

-.7798275 -.6500883

_cons

.7257504

.0561219

12.93 0.000

.615566 .8359348

 

 

 



Based on these results, it looks like there is a positive increase in the probability of voting for Obama (democrat) as the value of fedspend_border increases, which actually corresponds to a decrease in spending. However, the magnitude is small.

To test an LPM predicted value, we'll use the following characteristics:
Male, independent, rates Congress at 50, believes terrorism spending and school spending should remain constant, and believes border security spending should be increased a great deal
To find the z value:
scalar z = _b[_cons] + _b[fedspend_border]*1 + _b[congress_therm]*50 + _b[male]*1 + _b[fedspend_terrorism]*4 + _b[fedspend_schools]*4 + _b[independent]*1 + _b[republican]*0
display z
This particular example gives us the percentage probability that the voter will select Obama.
Now we can find the probability of someone with similar characteristics, BUT a change in his opinion of border spending, in this case, someone who believes spending should remain the same (fedspend_border = 4):
scalar z = _b[_cons] + _b[fedspend_border]*4 + _b[congress_therm]*50 + _b[male]*1 + _b[fedspend_terrorism]*4 + _b[fedspend_schools]*4 + _b[independent]*1 + _b[republican]*0
display z
Now we can find the probability of someone with similar characteristics, BUT a change in his opinion of border spending, in this case, someone who believes spending should decrease a great deal (fedspend_border = 7):
scalar z = _b[_cons] + _b[fedspend_border]*7 + _b[congress_therm]*50 + _b[male]*1 + _b[fedspend_terrorism]*4 + _b[fedspend_schools]*4 + _b[independent]*1 + _b[republican]*0
display z

These are all of our Linear Probability Model values.

Now, let's determine the probit model results:

probit who2012 fedspend_bordercongress_therm male fedspend_terrorismfedspend_schools independent republican, r

Iteration 0: log pseudolikelihood = -460.59874

Iteration 1: log pseudolikelihood = -216.29088

Iteration 2: log pseudolikelihood = -212.61059

Iteration 3: log pseudolikelihood = -212.59664

Iteration 4: log pseudolikelihood = -212.59663

Probit regression Number of obs

= 719

Wald chi2(7)

= 313.68

Prob > chi2

= 0.0000

Log pseudolikelihood = -212.59663 Pseudo R2

= 0.5384

 

 

Robust


who2012 Coef. Std. Err. z P>z

[95% Conf. Interval]

 


fedspend_border .0765934 .0458889 1.67 0.095

-.0133472 .1665339

congress_therm .0111291 .0035811 3.11 0.002

.0041103 .018148

male .2450341 .1430008 1.71 0.087

-.0352423 .5253105

fedspend_terrorism .1208896 .0412771 2.93 0.003

.039988 .2017912

fedspend_schools -.1820228 .0476661 -3.82 0.000

-.2754467 -.0885988

independent -.9743602 .20477 -4.76 0.000

-1.375702 -.5730184

republican -2.39355 .1491906 -16.04 0.000

-2.685958 -2.101142

_cons .4506491 .3076945 1.46 0.143

-.1524211 1.053719

 


We can now use the same Stata scalar command, however, to determine the probit value, we must use:
display normprob(z)

How do we determine the rest of the relevant results and what does the final table look like?

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