A Govt Committee is considering the economic benfits of a programme of preventative flu vaccinations. If vaccinations are not introduced, then the estimated cost to the Govt if the flu strikes in the next year is $7 M with a probability of 0.1, $10 with a probability of 0.3 and $15M with a probability of 0.6. It is estimated that such a programme will cost $7 M and that the probability of the flu striking in the next year is 0.75

One alternative open to the committee is to institute an "early warning" monitoring scheme (costing $3M) which will enable it to detect an outbreak of flu early and hence institute a rush vaccination programme (costing $10M because of the need to vaccinate quickly before the outbreak spreads)