A financial advisor has recommended two possible mutual funds for investment: Fund A and Fund B. The return that will be achieved by each of these depends on whether the economy is good, fair, or poor. A payoff table has been constructed to illustrate this situation:
Investment Good Economy Fair economy Poor Economy
Fund A $10.000 $2,000 -$5,000
Fund B $6,000 $4,000 0
Probability .2 .3 .5
a) Draw the decision tree to represent this situation.
b) Perform the necessary calculations to determine which of the two mutual funds is better. Which one should you choose to maximize the expected value?
c) Suppose there is question about the return of Fund A in a good economy. It could be higher or lower that $ 10,000. What value for this would cause a person to be indifferent between Fund A and Fund B (I.E., the EMV's would be the same)?