1) The actual values for 12 periods (shown in order) are:

(1) 45  (2) 52 (3) 48 (4) 59  (5) 55  (6) 54  (7) 64  (8) 59  (9) 72  (10) 66  (11) 64  (12) 78

Using a 5 period simple moving average, the forecast for period 13 will be:

2) Using the 4 period weighted moving average, the forecast for period 13 will be:

3) With exponential smoothing, the forecast for period 13 will be:

4) With linear regression, the forecast for period 13 will be:

5) With quadratic regression, the forecast for period 13 will be:

6) Considering only the forecasts for period 6-12, what is the lowest MAD value for any of the methods?