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1. The Producer Price Index for finished consumer goods from 1980 through 2007 is in file XR18084, with 1982 5 100 and 1980 coded as t 5 1. Construct a first- order autoregressive forecasting equation for these data, calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for the fit of the forecast values to the actual values, then use the equa- tion to forecast the PPI for 2008.

Source: Bureau of the Census, Statistical Abstract of the United States 2009, p. 474.

2. The Consumer Price Index from 1961 through 2007 is in file XR18085, with 1982-1984 5 100 and 1961 coded as t 5 1. Construct a first-order autoregres- sive forecasting equation for these data, calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for the fit of the fore- cast values to the actual values, then use the equation to forecast the CPI for 2008.

Source: The New York Times Almanac 2009, p. 338; and Bureau of the Census, Statistical Abstract of the United States 1999, p. 495.

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