1. For each of the following phrases write down the probability number that you feel is rep resented by the phrase. After doing so, check your answers to be sure they are consistent. [For example, is your answer to e less than your answer to j?]

a. "There is a better than even chance that..."

b. "A possibility exists that... "

c. "... has a high likelihood of occurring."

d. "The probability is very high that..."

e. "It is very unlikely that..."

f. "There is a slight chance ..."

g. "The chances are better than even ..."

h. "There is no probability, no serious probability, that..."

i. "... is probable."

j. "... is unlikely."

k. "There is a good chance that.. ."

l. "... is quite unlikely."

m. "... is improbable."

n. "... has a high probability." o "There is a chance that.. ." p "... is very improbable."

q. "... is likely."

r. "Probably..."

2. Suppose your father asked you to assess the probability that you would pass your deci sion-analysis course. How might you decompose this probability assessment? Draw an influence diagram to represent the decomposition.