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Question: From September 2000 to March 2001, the S&P 500 index fell 27% and the US economy headed into a recession. From March 2002 to July 2002, the index fell another 27%, yet this time the recovery that was already underway continued. Based on these events, explain why you would or would not use the stock market as a leading indicator to predict a recession the next time it falls sharply.

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