Over half of the nation's lettuce comes from three California areas: the Imperial Valley in the southeastern corner of the state, the area centered around Huron in Fresno County, and the area around Salinas in Monterey County. The Imperial Valley harvests in the late fall, Huron in the spring, and Salinas in the late spring and summer. Arizona, because of its warm weather, ships lettuce during the winter months.

In early 2002, the following events converged to bring the highest lettuce prices (about $3 per head) for Californians in 15 years:

• Unusually cold winter weather stunted Arizona's lettuce crop.

• The cold, to a lesser extent, also hit the Imperial Valley.

• At the same time, the East Coast had an unusually mild winter, which kept shipping routes open and demand for lettuce high.

• According to the Department of Agriculture officials, about 6 percent less lettuce was planted at this time than in the year before.

• In about four weeks, it was expected that Arizona's stunted crops would recover and at the same time, Huron's fields would be ready for harvest, resulting in a double harvest.

Source: "Shortage Drives Lettuce Price Up, Sacramento Bee, March 15, 2002, p. D2 (Reprinted from the Associated Press).

Write a brief (500 word) report describing what shift factors of supply and/or demand might be at work and how you would label those factors. Conclude the report with your forecast of what would likely result one month after the publication of the article.