1. Before you look at any actual data for February 2015, make a prediction of the direction of change (between 2009 and the present) for each of the eight categories of workers shown and for both the unemployment rate and the labor-force participation rate. That is, for adults and teenagers and for black and white males and females, make a prediction of whether these two labor-market indicators have increased, decreased, or stayed about the same. For example:
ADULTS Unemployment Rate Labor-Force Participation Rate
White, male Decreased Decreased
White, female
Black, male
Black, female
TEENAGERS
White, male
White, female
Black, male
Black, female
2. Go to the BLS web site BLS Employment Report for February 2015, Released on March 6, 2015) and find the most recent data for the unemployment rates and the labor-force participation rates for February 2015 for these same sub-categories of the labor force. Use the February 2015 data to update Table 1. [You will find the data you need in Table A-2 of the current report. Please use the Seasonally Adjusted data in your response. Note that you will find links to the other specific tables that you need for this assignment (Tables A1, A2, B1, and A15) at the bottom of this report.] [NB: Please notice that separate male/female unemployment rates for teenagers are not shown in the most recent data. Just do the best you can with the data that is reported here.]
a) Were your predictions correct? What, if anything, did you get wrong?
b) Why were your predictions wrong?
c) Were there any surprises in the most recent data?
3. Notice in the BLS report (and from the discussion in the text) that employment and unemployment data reported are gathered each month using two surveys of the U.S. economy. Please respond to the following questions regarding these two approaches to the measurement of the American labor market.
a. What are the names of the two surveys and (in broad terms) how do they differ in methodology? [See links to the FAQs and the Technical Note at the end of the current report.]
b. For each of the two surveys, what was total employment in the last three months reported and how did total employment change from one month to the other? Why do these estimates (between the two surveys) vary as much as they do?
c. Which data do you have the greatest confidence in (as the truest reflector of the actual situation in the U.S. labor market)?
4. Mankiw notes in Table 2 (page 199) that more inclusive measures of unemployment have received increased attention by labor-market analysts recently. Using Table A-15 in the current employment report, compare the February 2015 values of U-1 through U-6 with those shown in your textbook - Table 2 on page 199 (for April 2010). Using these wider measures of unemployment, are we better off now than we were in April 2010? How might we expect these results to change if the economy continues its recent pattern of positive growth of real GDP and total employment?