You are debating whether to reduce the risk by applying for the import license now and wait until it has been approved before committing yourself to purchasing the crude oil. The dilemma is that another petrochemical company may secure the deal before you do. You estimate that there is a 70% chance that another company will have taken the offer if you wait for the import license to be approved.
Question: Should you wait for the import license to be approved before purchasing the crude?