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Question: Consider the so-called bilinear process Yt = 1/2 εt-1Yt-2 + εt, where εt are independent drawings from N(0, σ2). As starting conditions are given ε0 = 0 and Y-1= Y0 = 0

a. Prove that yt is an uncorrelated process. Is it also a white noise process?

b. Prove that Y2t is not an uncorrelated process.

c. Prove that yt cannot be forecasted by linear functions of past observations yt-k (k ≥ 1) but that it can be forecasted by non-linear functions of these past observations.

d. Simulate n = 200 data from this process. Perform a Ljung-Box test and an ARCH test on the resulting time series. What is the relevance of this result for the interpretation of ARCH tests?

Macroeconomics, Economics

  • Category:- Macroeconomics
  • Reference No.:- M92287424

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