Probability in Decision Making and Public Management

Discussion 1: Probability or Random Guessing

You may have been using probability theory all your life and not realized it until now. Reflect upon your past experiences and determine where probability might have influenced a decision or action.

For this Discussion, you think about probability theory in the context of decision making in public management.

To prepare:
Review the Learning Resources for the week. Focus on probability theory as it relates to making decisions. Reflect upon the materials you have covered in Online Statistics Education: A Multimedia Course of Study in this week's Learning Resources.

Post a description of a situation where you have used or may use probability theory to reach a decision in public management. Include why probability theory would make sense to use in the decision making. Evaluate the merits of using probability theory over random guessing in making that decision.

Assignment: Short Paper: Using Probability in Practice

As you go through your materials this week, the introduction of the Online Statistics Education: A Multimedia Course of Study begins with Hebl (n.d.):

"The study of statistics involves math and relies upon calculations of numbers. But it also relies heavily on how the numbers are chosen and how the statistics are interpreted. . You will find that the numbers may be right, but the interpretation may be wrong. Try to identify a major flaw with each interpretation before we describe it." (p. 11)

It is important to remember that probability theory is an important tool for decision making in public management; however, interpreting numbers incorrectly can lead to decisions that do not always have the best outcomes.

For this Assignment, you review and interact with the content within the Online Statistics Education: A Multimedia Course of Study in your Weekly Resources.