Ask Question, Ask an Expert


Ask Econometrics Expert

Instructions (adapted from Hanke and Wichern) (Page limit is 15 pages)

Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) provides retail data for different groups and different states as well as the aggregate numbers. The main webpage to access the retail statistics is:

On the ‘Downloads’ tab you will find data for different categories. Table 11“ Retail Turnover, State by Industry Subgroup, Original” contains the data you can use in this part. You can select the state and the group you wish to analyse or you can use the aggregated data.The file contains monthly retail turnover data from April, 1982 to June, 2013. You are hired as a forecasting consultant to analyse the retail data as there is a concern that Australia retail sector is bad shape:

You, as an econometrics expert, need to analyse, generate and assess forecasts for monthly sales retail turnover for the rest of 2013.

After consulting with your peers, you decide to consider three models/methods for applicationto this dataset to generate forecasts.


A) Naive
B) Decomposition (multiplicative model)
C) A model of your choice**.

  • Perform an exploratory analysis on the entire dataset and discuss the important aspects of the data. Show all RELEVANT output (e.g. graphs, tables).
  • Choose a suitable decomposition model for model B while clearly motivating your choiceusing your answer in part (i) and any other relevant information i.e. choose between a multiplicative OR an additive model.
  • Choose a suitable model C while again clearly motivating your choice*.
  • Clearly present and discuss the trend-cycle, seasonal and error components in the in-sample data, as assessed by model B.Contrast these components between the models B and C if appropriate.
  • Choose a model form forthe trend component (one for Model B and also for model C, but only if appropriate) and clearly and properly justify your choice.
  • Discuss and compare how well, or otherwise,the models A, B (including trend as in (v)) and C fit the data in the in-sample period. Use statistical tests if appropriate.
  • Forecast the hold-out year, of monthly turnover data using Models A-C, using only the chosen in-sample period. Provide a table of these forecasts as well as a graph, together with the actual turnover for the last 12 months.
  • Assess the accuracy of each model and compare the models for forecast performance in the appropriate ways.Identify the best forecasting model and why you chose it as best.
  • Discuss why you think the ‘best’ model beat the other two models AND/OR why there was (or wasn’t) any disagreement between forecast accuracy measures.
  • Provide 95% interval forecasts for sales in the last 12 month for each model. Clearly present the method you used to obtain such interval estimates. As much as you can, discuss, interpret and compare these intervals.Are they accurate? Is one model better than the others here?
  • Choose a forecast model from A-C, motivating your choice. Then, update it with the latest available data, and then generate both point and 95% interval forecasts for the rest of 2013.Present these in an appropriate manner. Further, discuss how accurate you think these 2013 forecasts might turn out to be, with justification.
  • Prepare an executive summary outlining and summarising your analysis, providing your forecasts in a form suitable for the evening news. Use layman’s terms, since the majority of the viewers did not take the advanced forecasting course and do not understand statistical notation.
  • prepare up to a 0.5 pagestatement outlining the state of retail sector in Australia and your expectations for the rest of 2013.prepare this like a certified statement from an expert to the governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), so it can be used next time when RBA makes a decision on interest rates.

Econometrics, Economics

  • Category:- Econometrics
  • Reference No.:- M919

Have any Question? 

Related Questions in Econometrics

1 why is it important to take account of accelerator

1. Why is it important to take account of accelerator effects when considering changes in the macro economy? What does the accelerator effect imply for the stability of invest-ment spending over time? 2. Explain how the ...

1 assume that everyone agrees that global warming is both

1. Assume that everyone agrees that global warming is both real and caused by humans. Give two major reasons why bargaining in the spirit of Coase is unlikely to resolve the problem of excess carbon emissions. 2. Two dai ...

A calculate the emitter base and collector transit times

(a) Calculate the emitter, base, and collector transit times for the transistor structure described in problem 8.1. (b) Calculate the same quantities you did in part a for a pnp transistor in which the magnitudes of the ...

1 contrast market situations with complete and asymmetric

1. Contrast market situations with complete and asymmetric information. What is an example of a market with complete information? 2. What characteristics of a market can create the lemons problem? 3. Define adverse selec ...

Three consumers john kate and lester are in the market for

Three consumers, John, Kate, and Lester, are in the market for two goods, dates and eggs. Their willingness to pay for dates and eggs is given in the table below: a. If you are a local farmer who can produce dates and eg ...

In the late 1800s wildcat banks which were easy to charter

In the late 1800s "wildcat banks," which were easy to charter and largely unregulated, sprang up across the American West. Some new banks chose to operate out of simple and inexpensive wooden structures, but others built ...

The number of american telecommuters is expected to

The number of American telecommuters is expected to increase by 29 million telecommuters or 43% of the workforce by 2016 as more work gets performed from remote locations. Mobile workers can work from wherever they are a ...

The ara railroad owns a piece of land along one of its

The ARA Railroad owns a piece of land along one of its right-of-ways. The land originally cost ARA $100,000. ARA is considering building a new maintenance facility on this land. ARA determined that the proposal to build ...

Lo5 standard costing delaware inc uses a standard costing

LO.5 (Standard Costing) Delaware Inc. uses a standard costing system. The company experienced the following results related to direct labor in December 2008; Actual hours worked 49,500 Standard hours for production 46,20 ...

The state of california set up its own earthquake insurance

The state of California set up its own earthquake insurance program. Because the state agency in charge has few staff members, it pays private insurance carriers to handle claims for earthquake damage. These insurance fi ...

  • 4,153,160 Questions Asked
  • 13,132 Experts
  • 2,558,936 Questions Answered

Ask Experts for help!!

Looking for Assignment Help?

Start excelling in your Courses, Get help with Assignment

Write us your full requirement for evaluation and you will receive response within 20 minutes turnaround time.

Ask Now Help with Problems, Get a Best Answer

WalMart Identification of theory and critical discussion

Drawing on the prescribed text and/or relevant academic literature, produce a paper which discusses the nature of group

Section onea in an atwood machine suppose two objects of

SECTION ONE (a) In an Atwood Machine, suppose two objects of unequal mass are hung vertically over a frictionless

Part 1you work in hr for a company that operates a factory

Part 1: You work in HR for a company that operates a factory manufacturing fiberglass. There are several hundred empl

Details on advanced accounting paperthis paper is intended

DETAILS ON ADVANCED ACCOUNTING PAPER This paper is intended for students to apply the theoretical knowledge around ac

Create a provider database and related reports and queries

Create a provider database and related reports and queries to capture contact information for potential PC component pro