Ask Question, Ask an Expert

+1-415-315-9853

info@mywordsolution.com

Ask Econometrics Expert

Instructions (adapted from Hanke and Wichern) (Page limit is 15 pages)

Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) provides retail data for different groups and different states as well as the aggregate numbers. The main webpage to access the retail statistics is:

http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/8501.0Jun%202013?OpenDocument

On the ‘Downloads’ tab you will find data for different categories. Table 11“ Retail Turnover, State by Industry Subgroup, Original” contains the data you can use in this part. You can select the state and the group you wish to analyse or you can use the aggregated data.The file contains monthly retail turnover data from April, 1982 to June, 2013. You are hired as a forecasting consultant to analyse the retail data as there is a concern that Australia retail sector is bad shape:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-08-05/retail-sales-flat-in-june/4865264

You, as an econometrics expert, need to analyse, generate and assess forecasts for monthly sales retail turnover for the rest of 2013.

After consulting with your peers, you decide to consider three models/methods for applicationto this dataset to generate forecasts.

Models/Methods USING SAS AND/ OR EXCEL:

A) Naive
B) Decomposition (multiplicative model)
C) A model of your choice**.

  • Perform an exploratory analysis on the entire dataset and discuss the important aspects of the data. Show all RELEVANT output (e.g. graphs, tables).
  • Choose a suitable decomposition model for model B while clearly motivating your choiceusing your answer in part (i) and any other relevant information i.e. choose between a multiplicative OR an additive model.
  • Choose a suitable model C while again clearly motivating your choice*.
  • Clearly present and discuss the trend-cycle, seasonal and error components in the in-sample data, as assessed by model B.Contrast these components between the models B and C if appropriate.
  • Choose a model form forthe trend component (one for Model B and also for model C, but only if appropriate) and clearly and properly justify your choice.
  • Discuss and compare how well, or otherwise,the models A, B (including trend as in (v)) and C fit the data in the in-sample period. Use statistical tests if appropriate.
  • Forecast the hold-out year, of monthly turnover data using Models A-C, using only the chosen in-sample period. Provide a table of these forecasts as well as a graph, together with the actual turnover for the last 12 months.
  • Assess the accuracy of each model and compare the models for forecast performance in the appropriate ways.Identify the best forecasting model and why you chose it as best.
  • Discuss why you think the ‘best’ model beat the other two models AND/OR why there was (or wasn’t) any disagreement between forecast accuracy measures.
  • Provide 95% interval forecasts for sales in the last 12 month for each model. Clearly present the method you used to obtain such interval estimates. As much as you can, discuss, interpret and compare these intervals.Are they accurate? Is one model better than the others here?
  • Choose a forecast model from A-C, motivating your choice. Then, update it with the latest available data, and then generate both point and 95% interval forecasts for the rest of 2013.Present these in an appropriate manner. Further, discuss how accurate you think these 2013 forecasts might turn out to be, with justification.
  • Prepare an executive summary outlining and summarising your analysis, providing your forecasts in a form suitable for the evening news. Use layman’s terms, since the majority of the viewers did not take the advanced forecasting course and do not understand statistical notation.
  • prepare up to a 0.5 pagestatement outlining the state of retail sector in Australia and your expectations for the rest of 2013.prepare this like a certified statement from an expert to the governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), so it can be used next time when RBA makes a decision on interest rates.

Econometrics, Economics

  • Category:- Econometrics
  • Reference No.:- M919

Have any Question? 


Related Questions in Econometrics

An economist is interested in how the price of a certain

An economist is interested in how the price of a certain commodity affects its sales. Suppose that at a price of $p, a quantity q of the commodity is sold. If q = f(p), explain in economic terms the meaning of the statem ...

Canada is the largest trading partner for the united states

Canada is the largest trading partner for the United States. In 2009, U.S. exports to Canada were more than $171 billion and imports from Canada totaled more than $224 billion. On January 1, 2009, the exchange rate betwe ...

Firm-specific demand in the scheduled airline industry is

Firm-specific demand in the scheduled airline industry is segmented by customer class and is highly uncertain so that an order may not lead to realized revenue and a unit sale. Airlines respond to this dynamic, highly co ...

When the price of home heating oil increased by 20 percent

When the price of home heating oil increased by 20 percent, the quantity demanded decreased by 2 percent and the quantity of wool sweaters demanded increased by 10 percent. Use this information to work Problems. Use the ...

Explain why the number of elephants and rhinos is declining

Explain why the number of elephants and rhinos is declining in nations where the animals are housed on national parks and rising in nations where the animals are privately owned and farmed by individuals.

Find recent evidence in the wall street journal and other

find recent evidence in the wall street journal and other business publicationns on how conpaniers are expanding tha use of the opening case to understand and impact consumer behavior

In 1976 a tragic release of one of the most toxic compounds

In 1976, a tragic release of one of the most toxic compounds known to man (dioxin, i.e., 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin) occurred in Seveso, Italy. The plant was manufacturing 2,4,5-trichlorophenol from 1,2,4,5-tetr ...

For the following production functionsbull find the

For the following production functions, • Find the marginal product of each input. • Determine whether the production function exhibits diminishing marginal returns to each input. • Find the marginal rate of technical su ...

The following sets of statements contain common errors

The following sets of statements contain common errors. Identify and explain each error: a. Demand increases, causing prices to rise. Higher prices cause demand to fall. Therefore, prices fall back to their original leve ...

The williams company has a present capital structure that

The Williams Company has a present capital structure (that it considers optimal) consisting of 30 percent long-term debt and 70 percent common equity. The company plans to finance next year's capital budget with addition ...

  • 4,153,160 Questions Asked
  • 13,132 Experts
  • 2,558,936 Questions Answered

Ask Experts for help!!

Looking for Assignment Help?

Start excelling in your Courses, Get help with Assignment

Write us your full requirement for evaluation and you will receive response within 20 minutes turnaround time.

Ask Now Help with Problems, Get a Best Answer

WalMart Identification of theory and critical discussion

Drawing on the prescribed text and/or relevant academic literature, produce a paper which discusses the nature of group

Section onea in an atwood machine suppose two objects of

SECTION ONE (a) In an Atwood Machine, suppose two objects of unequal mass are hung vertically over a frictionless

Part 1you work in hr for a company that operates a factory

Part 1: You work in HR for a company that operates a factory manufacturing fiberglass. There are several hundred empl

Details on advanced accounting paperthis paper is intended

DETAILS ON ADVANCED ACCOUNTING PAPER This paper is intended for students to apply the theoretical knowledge around ac

Create a provider database and related reports and queries

Create a provider database and related reports and queries to capture contact information for potential PC component pro