Ask Question, Ask an Expert

+1-415-315-9853

info@mywordsolution.com

Ask Econometrics Expert

Instructions (adapted from Hanke and Wichern) (Page limit is 15 pages)

Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) provides retail data for different groups and different states as well as the aggregate numbers. The main webpage to access the retail statistics is:

http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/8501.0Jun%202013?OpenDocument

On the ‘Downloads’ tab you will find data for different categories. Table 11“ Retail Turnover, State by Industry Subgroup, Original” contains the data you can use in this part. You can select the state and the group you wish to analyse or you can use the aggregated data.The file contains monthly retail turnover data from April, 1982 to June, 2013. You are hired as a forecasting consultant to analyse the retail data as there is a concern that Australia retail sector is bad shape:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-08-05/retail-sales-flat-in-june/4865264

You, as an econometrics expert, need to analyse, generate and assess forecasts for monthly sales retail turnover for the rest of 2013.

After consulting with your peers, you decide to consider three models/methods for applicationto this dataset to generate forecasts.

Models/Methods USING SAS AND/ OR EXCEL:

A) Naive
B) Decomposition (multiplicative model)
C) A model of your choice**.

  • Perform an exploratory analysis on the entire dataset and discuss the important aspects of the data. Show all RELEVANT output (e.g. graphs, tables).
  • Choose a suitable decomposition model for model B while clearly motivating your choiceusing your answer in part (i) and any other relevant information i.e. choose between a multiplicative OR an additive model.
  • Choose a suitable model C while again clearly motivating your choice*.
  • Clearly present and discuss the trend-cycle, seasonal and error components in the in-sample data, as assessed by model B.Contrast these components between the models B and C if appropriate.
  • Choose a model form forthe trend component (one for Model B and also for model C, but only if appropriate) and clearly and properly justify your choice.
  • Discuss and compare how well, or otherwise,the models A, B (including trend as in (v)) and C fit the data in the in-sample period. Use statistical tests if appropriate.
  • Forecast the hold-out year, of monthly turnover data using Models A-C, using only the chosen in-sample period. Provide a table of these forecasts as well as a graph, together with the actual turnover for the last 12 months.
  • Assess the accuracy of each model and compare the models for forecast performance in the appropriate ways.Identify the best forecasting model and why you chose it as best.
  • Discuss why you think the ‘best’ model beat the other two models AND/OR why there was (or wasn’t) any disagreement between forecast accuracy measures.
  • Provide 95% interval forecasts for sales in the last 12 month for each model. Clearly present the method you used to obtain such interval estimates. As much as you can, discuss, interpret and compare these intervals.Are they accurate? Is one model better than the others here?
  • Choose a forecast model from A-C, motivating your choice. Then, update it with the latest available data, and then generate both point and 95% interval forecasts for the rest of 2013.Present these in an appropriate manner. Further, discuss how accurate you think these 2013 forecasts might turn out to be, with justification.
  • Prepare an executive summary outlining and summarising your analysis, providing your forecasts in a form suitable for the evening news. Use layman’s terms, since the majority of the viewers did not take the advanced forecasting course and do not understand statistical notation.
  • prepare up to a 0.5 pagestatement outlining the state of retail sector in Australia and your expectations for the rest of 2013.prepare this like a certified statement from an expert to the governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), so it can be used next time when RBA makes a decision on interest rates.

Econometrics, Economics

  • Category:- Econometrics
  • Reference No.:- M919

Have any Question? 


Related Questions in Econometrics

Monte carlo exercisein order to illustrate the sampling

Monte Carlo Exercise In order to illustrate the sampling theory for the least squares estimator, we will perform a Monte Carlo experiment based on the following statistical model and the attached design matrix y = Xβ + e ...

Question - consider the following regression model for i 1

Question - Consider the following regression model for i = 1, ..., N: Yi = β1*X1i + β2*X2i + ui Note that there is no intercept in this model (so it is assumed that β0 = 0). a) Write down the least squares function minim ...

Economics and quantitative analysis linear regression

Economics and Quantitative Analysis Linear Regression Report Assignment - Background - In your role as an economic analyst, you have been asked the following question: how much does education influence wages? The Excel d ...

Basic econometrics research report group assignment -this

Basic Econometrics Research Report Group Assignment - This assignment uses data from the BUPA health insurance call centre. Each observation includes data from one call to the call centre. The variables describe several ...

  • 4,153,160 Questions Asked
  • 13,132 Experts
  • 2,558,936 Questions Answered

Ask Experts for help!!

Looking for Assignment Help?

Start excelling in your Courses, Get help with Assignment

Write us your full requirement for evaluation and you will receive response within 20 minutes turnaround time.

Ask Now Help with Problems, Get a Best Answer

Why might a bank avoid the use of interest rate swaps even

Why might a bank avoid the use of interest rate swaps, even when the institution is exposed to significant interest rate

Describe the difference between zero coupon bonds and

Describe the difference between zero coupon bonds and coupon bonds. Under what conditions will a coupon bond sell at a p

Compute the present value of an annuity of 880 per year

Compute the present value of an annuity of $ 880 per year for 16 years, given a discount rate of 6 percent per annum. As

Compute the present value of an 1150 payment made in ten

Compute the present value of an $1,150 payment made in ten years when the discount rate is 12 percent. (Do not round int

Compute the present value of an annuity of 699 per year

Compute the present value of an annuity of $ 699 per year for 19 years, given a discount rate of 6 percent per annum. As