If the value of the U.S. dollar rises from €1.0 per dollar to €1.3 per dollar,

imports of automobiles from Germany will decline

American inflation will increase

German exports of all traded goods will decline

American exports to Germany will decrease

sales by American manufacturers for the export markets will increase.

Seasonal variations can be incorporated into a time-series model in a number of different ways, including:

             a.   ratio-to-trend method

             b.   use of dummy variables

             c.   root mean squared error method

             d.   a and b only

In the first-order exponential smoothing model, the new forecast is equal to the old forecast plus a weighting factor (W) times the error in the most recent forecast.

             a.   true             b.   false

Simplified trend models are generally appropriate for predicting the turning points in an economic time series.

a.    true

 b.   false

Variations in a time-series forecast can be caused by:

             a.   cyclical variations

             b.   secular trends

             c.   seasonal effects

             d.   a and b only

             e.   a, b, and c

The variation in an economic time-series which is caused by major expansions or contractions usually of greater than a year in duration is known as:

             a.   secular trend

             b.   cyclical variation

             c.   seasonal effect

             d.   unpredictable random factor

The type of economic indicator that can best be used for business forecasting is the:

             a.   leading indicator

             b.   coincident indicator

             c.   lagging indicator

             d.   current business inventory indicator

             e.   optimism/pessimism indicator

Smoothing techniques are a form of ___________ techniques which assume that there is an underlying pattern to be found in the historical values of a variable that is being forecast.

             a.   opinion polling

             b.   barometric forecasting

             c.   econometric forecasting

             d.   time-series forecasting

             e.   none of the above

The use of quarterly data to develop the forecasting model Yt = kYt-1 is an example of which forecasting technique?

             a.   barometric

             b.   time-series

             c.   survey

             d.   econometric

            e.   input-output

The forecasting technique which attempts to forecast short-run changes and makes use of economic indicators known as leading, coincident or lagging indicators is known as

a.  econometric technique

b.   time-series forecasting

c.   opinion polling

d.   barometric technique

e.   judgment forecasting